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I have a theory about Social Media. It is something I have been thinking of with an increasing sense of urgency over the last couple years as I look at the social media landscape and see a growing number of people who feel alienated, angry, and scared. It is not just the overtly political spheres that are becoming more tense with negative discourse by influentials on either side. The tensions have been swirling around commercialized spheres as well - video games, movies, TV - for years now with no indication that it will stop any time soon. This potential for social media to be a place for people to express their discontent not only has significant implications for advertisers but also for those providing this content to consumers. The more tacit assumption of the people behind these posts is that they are trying to make a point. Often they use inflammatory language, placing their critics in a position of responding to them with invective and irrational discourse in return. This in turn feels like it feeds into an inescapable spiral that cannot be stopped. I have not been able to find any studies on the political nature of these interactions but it does seem reasonable to predict that this is also impacting election outcomes. I have seen some charts which suggest that there is such a correlation between social media and elections but do not think we know enough about the data points involved for it to be conclusive. I recently came across a study that looked at Twitter as a reflection of Fake News propagation. Here is the analysis from Center for Strategic and International Studies: In looking at the correlation between social media and elections itself, I have noticed a frightening trend. If you go back to the beginning of time you can see what I am talking about! Social media was not born until the late 90s so it seems unlikely that either side would have had access to these platforms before this time. The next wave of elections is going to be quite possibly the first that will be seen on social media. In particular, younger generations are going to be critical actors in how they will affect political outcomes over the next decade or so. It is not out of the question to assume that the success of any given candidate will have a significant correlation with how many people on social media express their support or disdain for that candidate. In some countries it is already happening right now. We have seen some early trends generate a wider trend across election years globally, by leveraging social media as a tool, rather than a medium. This has significant implications for anyone working in the political arena going forward. If, in the future, someone expresses their support for a given candidate on social media, their followers are likely to follow suit. They are less likely to have the scientific data to back up their claim but are more likely to rely on how they feel about their candidate being backed by people they know and trust rather than inclement weather or economic trends that might affect potential voters. The other side will also be able to manipulate this information in the future pushing against each other with opposing narratives for public consumption. cfa1e77820
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